Emva kovavanyo lwe-African swine fever kunye ne-East African loctuer plague, ubhubhane omtsha we-crown pneumonia ozayo ukhulisa ingxaki yamaxabiso okutya kwihlabathi liphela kunye nobonelelo, kwaye unokukhuthaza utshintsho oluhlala luhleli kwikhonkco lobonelelo.
Ukwanda kwenani labasebenzi ababangelwa yi-crown pneumonia entsha, ukuphazamiseka kwenkqubo yokubonelela ngeenkonzo kunye namanyathelo okuvala uqoqosho kuya kuba nefuthe elibi ekunikezelweni kokutya kwihlabathi liphela. Izenzo zoorhulumente ezithile zokuthintela ukuthunyelwa kweenkozo ngaphandle ukuze kuhlangatyezwane neemfuno zasekhaya zinokwenza imeko ibe mandundu.
Kwiseminari ekwi-intanethi eququzelelwe yiGlobalization Think Tank (CCG), uMatthew Kovac, umlawuli ophetheyo weFood Industry Association of Asia (FIA), uxelele intatheli evela kwiChina Business News ukuba ingxaki yexesha elifutshane yekhonkco lokubonelela yimikhwa yokuthenga abathengi. Olu tshintsho luye lwachaphazela ishishini lendabuko lokupheka; ekuhambeni kwexesha, iinkampani ezinkulu zokutya zinokwenza imveliso esasazekileyo.
Amazwe ahlwempuzekileyo achaphazeleka kakhulu
Ngokwedatha ekhutshwe kutshanje yiBhanki yeHlabathi, amazwe angama-50 achaphazeleke kakhulu yintsholongwane entsha ye-crown pneumonia abandakanya umyinge we-66% yokutya okuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwehlabathi. Isabelo siqala kwi-38% kwizityalo zokuzonwabisa ezifana necuba ukuya kwi-75% kwioyile yezilwanyana nemifuno, iziqhamo ezintsha kunye nenyama. Ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kokutya okuqhelekileyo okufana nombona, ingqolowa kunye nerayisi nako kuxhomekeke kakhulu kula mazwe.
Amazwe avelisa izityalo ezininzi ajongene nefuthe elibi kakhulu ngenxa yobhubhane. Umzekelo, iBelgium yenye yezona zorhwebo ziphambili zokuthumela iitapile kwihlabathi. Ngenxa yokuvalwa, iBelgium ayilahlekelwanga nje kuphela kukuthengiswa ngenxa yokuvalwa kweendawo zokutyela zasekuhlaleni, kodwa nokuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe aseYurophu kwamiswa ngenxa yokuvalwa. IGhana yenye yezona zorhwebo ziphambili zokuthumela i-cocoa kwihlabathi. Xa abantu babegxile ekuthengeni izinto eziyimfuneko endaweni yetshokholethi ngexesha lobhubhane, ilizwe lalahlekelwa yimarike yonke yaseYurophu naseAsia.
Ingcali yezoqoqosho kwiBhanki yeHlabathi uMichele Ruta kunye nabanye bathi kwingxelo ukuba ukugula kwabasebenzi kunye nemfuno ngexesha lokulinda umgama kuya kuchaphazela ngokulinganayo ukunikezelwa kweemveliso zezolimo ezifuna abasebenzi abaninzi, emva koko emva kobhubhane. Ngeli xesha lekota, ukuhanjiswa kokutya kwehlabathi kungancitshiswa nge-6% ukuya kwi-20%, kwaye ukuhanjiswa kokutya okuninzi okubalulekileyo, kubandakanya irayisi, ingqolowa kunye neetapile, kunokwehla ngaphezulu kwe-15%.
Ngokwengxelo yokubeka esweni i-European Union University Institute (EUI), iGlobal Trade Alert (GTA) kunye neWorld Bank, ekupheleni kuka-Epreli, amazwe angaphezu kwama-20 kunye nemimandla abeke imida ethile ekuthunyelweni kokutya ngaphandle. Umzekelo, iRashiya neKazakhstan zibeke imida efanayo yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweenkozo, kwaye iIndiya neVietnam zibeke imida efanayo yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweerayisi. Kwangaxeshanye, amanye amazwe akhawulezisa ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle ukuze kugcinwe ukutya. Umzekelo, iPhilippines igcina irayisi kwaye iYiputa igcina ingqolowa.
Njengoko amaxabiso okutya enyuka ngenxa yempembelelo yobhubhane omtsha we-crown pneumonia, urhulumente usenokuthambekela ekusebenziseni imigaqo-nkqubo yorhwebo ukuzinzisa amaxabiso asekhaya. Olu hlobo lokukhusela ukutya lubonakala luyindlela elungileyo yokubonelela ngoncedo kumaqela asengozini kakhulu, kodwa ukuphunyezwa ngaxeshanye kokungenelela okunjalo ngoorhulumente abaninzi kunokubangela ukuba amaxabiso okutya ehlabathi anyuke kakhulu, njengoko kwakunjalo ngo-2010-2011. Ngokutsho koqikelelo lweBhanki yeHlabathi, kwikota elandela ukuqhambuka ngokupheleleyo kobhubhane, ukunyuka kwemiqathango yokuthumela ngaphandle kuya kubangela ukwehla okuqhelekileyo kokunikezelwa kokutya ngaphandle kwehlabathi ngama-40.1%, ngelixa amaxabiso okutya kwihlabathi liphela aya kunyuka ngomyinge we-12.9%. Amaxabiso amakhulu eentlanzi, ii-oats, imifuno kunye nengqolowa aya kunyuka ngama-25% nangaphezulu.
Ezi ziphumo zimbi ziya kuthwalwa kakhulu ngamazwe ahlwempuzekileyo. Ngokwedatha evela kwiWorld Economic Forum, kumazwe ahlwempuzekileyo, ukutya kubalelwa kwi-40%-60% yokutya kwabo, okumalunga ne-5-6 amaxesha oqoqosho oluphucukileyo. I-Nomura Securities' Food Vulnerability Index ibeka amazwe kunye nemimandla eli-110 ngokusekelwe kumngcipheko wokuguquguquka okukhulu kwamaxabiso okutya. Idatha yamva nje ibonisa ukuba phantse onke amazwe kunye nemimandla engama-50 asengozini yokunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso okutya. Uqoqosho oluphuhlayo olumalunga nesithathu kwisihlanu sabemi behlabathi. Phakathi kwawo, amazwe achaphazeleke kakhulu axhomekeke ekuthengeni ukutya aquka iTajikistan, iAzerbaijan, iYiputa, iYemen kunye neCuba. Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lokutya kula mazwe liya kunyuka nge-15% ukuya kwi-25.9%. Ngokuphathelele iinkozo, izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kumazwe asaphuhlayo nalawo angaphuhlanga kangako axhomekeke ekuthengeni ukutya liya kuba phezulu ukuya kwi-35.7%.
“Zininzi izinto ezibangela imingeni kwinkqubo yokutya yehlabathi. Ukongeza kubhubhane okhoyo ngoku, kukwakho notshintsho lwemozulu nezinye izizathu. Ndicinga ukuba kubalulekile ukwamkela iintlobo ngeentlobo zemigaqo-nkqubo xa kujongwana nalo mceli mngeni.” UMlawuli weZiko loPhando lweMigaqo-nkqubo yoKutya kwiHlabathi Jikelele uJohan Swinnen uxelele iintatheli zeCBN ukuba kubaluleke kakhulu ukunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kumthombo omnye wokuthenga. “Oku kuthetha ukuba ukuba ufumana kuphela inxalenye enkulu yokutya okusisiseko kwilizwe elinye, olu luhlu lokubonelela kunye nokuhanjiswa kweenkonzo zisengozini yokubeka emngciphekweni. Ke ngoko, licebo elingcono ukwakha ipotifoliyo yotyalo-mali ukuze ufumane kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo. “Utshilo.”
Indlela yokwahlukahlukana kwekhonkco lokubonelela
Ngo-Epreli, iindawo ezininzi zokuxhela e-US apho abasebenzi babeqinisekisile khona ukuba kukho amatyala apho kwanyanzeleka ukuba avalwe. Ukongeza kwimpembelelo ethe ngqo yokunciphisa ukuhanjiswa kwehagu ngama-25%, ikwabangele nempembelelo engathanga ngqo efana neenkxalabo malunga nemfuno yokutya kombona. Ingxelo yamva nje ethi "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecast Report" ekhutshwe liSebe lezoLimo lase-US ibonisa ukuba isixa sokutya esisetyenzisiweyo ngo-2019-2020 sinokubalelwa phantse kwi-46% yemfuno yombona wasekhaya e-United States.
“Ukuvalwa kwefektri okubangelwe yintsholongwane entsha ye-crown pneumonia ngumceli mngeni omkhulu. Ukuba ivaliwe iintsuku ezimbalwa kuphela, ifektri inokulawula ilahleko zayo. Nangona kunjalo, ukumiswa kwexesha elide kwemveliso akwenzi nje kuphela ukuba abaprosesa bangasebenzi, kodwa kukwabangela nababoneleli babo ukuba bangabi namdla.” Utshilo uChristine McCracken, umhlalutyi ophezulu kwishishini leeprotheyini zezilwanyana laseRabobank.
Ukuqhambuka ngequbuliso kwe-new crown pneumonia kube neziphumo ezininzi ezintsonkothileyo kuthungelwano lokutya lwehlabathi. Ukususela ekusebenzeni kweefektri zenyama eMelika ukuya ekuvuneni iziqhamo nemifuno eIndiya, imiqathango yokuhamba imida ikwaphazamise umjikelo wemveliso eqhelekileyo yexesha lonyaka wabalimi. Ngokutsho kweThe Economist, iUnited States neYurophu zifuna abasebenzi abangaphezu kwesigidi abafudukayo abavela eMexico, eMntla Afrika naseMpuma Yurophu minyaka le ukuze baphathe isivuno, kodwa ngoku ingxaki yokunqongophala kwabasebenzi iya icaca ngakumbi nangakumbi.
Njengoko kuba nzima ngakumbi ukuba iimveliso zezolimo zithuthwe ziye kwizityalo ezicutshungulwayo nakwiimarike, inani elikhulu leefama kufuneka lilahle okanye litshabalalise ubisi nokutya okutsha okungenakuthunyelelwa kwizityalo ezicutshungulwayo. I-Agricultural Products Marketing Association (PMA), iqela lorhwebo lweshishini e-United States, lithe ngaphezulu kwe-5 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwiziqhamo nemifuno emitsha ziye zachithwa, kwaye ezinye iifektri zobisi zilahle amawaka eegaloni zobisi.
Enye yeenkampani ezinkulu zokutya neziselo emhlabeni, isekela-mongameli we-Unilever R&D uCarla Hilhorst, uxelele iintatheli ze-CBN ukuba uthungelwano lokubonelela kufuneka lubonise ubuninzi obukhulu.
“Kuza kufuneka sikhuthaze ubuninzi kunye nokwahlukahlukana okukhulu, kuba ngoku ukusetyenziswa kwethu kunye nemveliso yethu kuxhomekeke kakhulu kwiindlela ezimbalwa zokukhetha.” USilhorst uthe, “Kuzo zonke izinto zethu eziluhlaza, ngaba kukho isiseko esinye semveliso? Bangaphi ababoneleli abakhoyo, ziveliswa phi izinto eziluhlaza, kwaye ngaba abo ziveliswa khona izinto eziluhlaza basengozini enkulu? Ukususela kwezi ngxaki, kusafuneka senze umsebenzi omninzi.”
UKovac uxelele iintatheli zeCBN ukuba kwixesha elifutshane, ukutshintshwa kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngokutya ngubhubhane omtsha we-crown pneumonia kubonakala kutshintsho olukhawulezileyo oluya ekuhanjisweni kokutya kwi-intanethi, oluye lwachaphazela kakhulu ishishini lokutya neziselo zemveli.
Umzekelo, intengiso yeMcDonald's yorhwebo lokutya okukhawulezayo eYurophu yehle malunga nama-70%, abathengisi abakhulu baphinde batshintsha ukusasazwa, amandla okubonelela ngevenkile yokutya e-Amazon anyuke ngama-60%, kwaye iWal-Mart yonyuse ukuqeshwa kwayo ngabantu abayi-150,000.
Ekuhambeni kwexesha, uKovac uthe: “Amashishini anokufuna imveliso esasazwe ngakumbi kwixesha elizayo. Ishishini elikhulu elineefektri ezininzi linokunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwalo ngokukodwa kumzi-mveliso othile. Ukuba imveliso yakho igxile kwilizwe elinye, ungacinga ngokwahlukana, njengababoneleli okanye abathengi abatyebileyo.”
“Ndikholelwa ukuba isantya sokwenziwa kwezinto ngokuzenzekelayo kwiinkampani ezilungisa ukutya ezizimisele ukutyala imali siza kukhawulezisa. Ngokucacileyo, utyalo-mali olongezelelekileyo ngeli xesha luya kuba nefuthe ekusebenzeni, kodwa ndicinga ukuba ukuba ujonga emva ku-2008 (ubonelelo olubangelwa yimida yokuthunyelwa kokutya kwamanye amazwe) Kwimeko yengxaki), ezo nkampani zokutya neziselo ezizimisele ukutyala imali kufuneka zibone ukukhula kwentengiso, okanye ubuncinci ngcono kakhulu kuneenkampani ezingakhange zityale imali.” UKovac uxelele intatheli ye-CBN.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Matshi-06-2021